Post by paje on Nov 5, 2020 9:37:02 GMT -5
Alright let's break this game down.
Notre Dame is 39-6 since the 2016 debacle. Some of those losses were to two Georgia teams that made it to CFP and finished #5 respectively. Clemson in he CFP (blow out), and #7 Miami in prime time (blow out). Throw in the 2012 BCS Bama game (blow out) and last year's Michigan game (blow out) and the story of the Brian Kelly era is that they are a solid top 10 program who can't compete with the upper echelon teams.
Clemson's last five year's on the other hand: runner-up, national champion, semi-finalist, national champion, runner-up. Currently undefeated and #1.
This is Notre Dame's best chance against an elite program. The game is in South Bend, Clemson's star QB,#1 pick, Heisman front runner is out with COVID. They are also missing two starters on defense and a third missing the first half for targeting. If they can't do it Saturday, I don't know if they ever will.
ND comes into the came with a 5th year senior, three year starter at QB. Clemson comes with a true freshman making his first road start, and yet I'm pretty sure Clemson still has the advantage at the position.
What does ND need to do? Run the ball. 55, 109, 88, 47, 46 - Those are the rushing totals of Notre Dame's last five losses against Georgia (2), Michigan, Miami and Clemson. The ND offense will arguably be the best unit on the field Saturday, they have to play like it and establish the run. Next Ian Book needs to play the best game of his career. He's been shaky all season but he'll need to play mistake free, be accurate and make the right reads to win. If Clemson is vulnerable it will be on their defense with several starters out, but Tommy Rees (OC) vs. Brent Venables (DC) is a huge mismatch in favor of Clemson. Run the ball and be opportunistic in the passing game to have a shot.
ND's defense is really good, giving up about 10 points a game (to much lesser competition). Can they scheme a way to confuse DJ Uiagalelei and force him into a couple of mistakes. Probably, but he seems talented and athletic enough make something out of nothing if he needs to. They also need to somehow not let Travis Etienne run wild. He'll get his but they can't let him completely take over the game.
The line is Clemson -5.5 and o/u 51.5. They is an implied score of Clemson 28.5 Notre Dame 23. I don't think that will be the final, mainly because I don't think you can score half a point in college football, but I think if the Irish can keep the game in the 20s they have a shot. If Uiagalelei and Etienne are able to do what they want and break big plays and this thing gets into the 30s, I don't think ND has the fire power to match them.
That's really it, just do something (run the ball) that you haven't been able to do against great competition, have your QB play the best game of his career, force the other team's 5 star QB into mistakes and contain a sure fire collage football hall of fame running back. Piece of cake.
